Future of Transportation

A couple of years ago, I watched a video of Tony Seba. He explained the coming disruption of Energy and Transportation. It was one of the best videos I’ve seen in one to two decades.

There is an update to this. He recently gave the presentation again:

This is a must-watch, as it explains huge disruptions that are happening. According Tony Seba, people will buy solar and electric cars, not to be green for the environment, but to get more green into their wallets, because solar will soon be cheaper than the grid and electric cars are already cheaper than gas cars (it’s just that most people don’t know this yet).

This is a technology, not green, disruption. Many companies related to gas cars and oil are doing to be destroyed. On the other side, millions of people will benefit greatly. According to Tony Seba, there will be:

  • 1.2 million fewer deaths from car accidents around the world
  • 20-40 million fewer injuries or hospitalizations
  • Millions of hours freed up from commuting
  • $1 trillion of savings for U.S. households
  • $1 trillion of increased productivity
  • Less pollution

Cities will free up huge amounts of land, which can increase the number of parks and homes, which can reduce the cost of housing. There will be increased mobility for elderly, disabled, young and poor. New businesses, enabled by autonomous electric vehicles, will be spawned.

He explained that the cost of batteries and solar have been dropping for many years.  If they keep dropping, there are going to be major disruptions.  Tesla Energy can possibly disrupt the entire grid.  They are starting with possibly replacing “peaker power plants”.  Tesla showed that they can replace Australia’s utility company’s peaker power plant.  It is not a success because it is green.  It is a success because it will save the utility company a lot of money.

One benefit that Tony Seba did not mention is the reduced demand for Middle East oil, which has geo-political implications. This means fewer wars. It also means that Saudi Arabia will have less money to fund and push their ideology to the rest of the world, which they have done for many years.

From an investment perspective, it also means that you should be cautious about investing in any country that makes a significant percentage of their revenue from oil. This includes Canada, Norway and to a lessor degree, the U.S.

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