Tag Archives: covid-19

Jumped Back In

The stock market does not wait for the economy to bottom before it rebounds. Usually, the market rebounds a few months before the economy does.

As with many other investors, I have been waiting for a treatment, cure or vaccine before I would jump back in.

First, there was anecdotal evidence of positive results from HydroxyChloroquine with Azithromycin. However, there were also reports that it has negative side effects or that it may not work as well as first thought.

Then these came out:

68% of patients showed clinical improvement using Gilead’s Remdesivir in ‘compassionate use’

Gilead drug produced ‘rapid’ recovery in coronavirus patients, report says

Remdesivir: ‘Very potent inhibitor’ of SARS-CoV-2?

In addition to the above, there are over 30 treatments and therapeutics being worked on.

I do not have 100% certainty that there will be a home-run treatment. However, there are likely going to be a number of treatments that will treat different patients with different situations or pre-conditions.

Therefore, I think that the death rate will decline. The pandemic will likely slowly improve from this point on. It will not go back to normal anytime soon. It likely will take one to two years. But if you wait for everything to go normal, then you might miss out on opportunities to buy stocks cheaply.

Also, there are many companies working on a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, the probability of a vaccine coming out is greater than one coming out for MERS or SARS. There is even this:

Coronavirus vaccine could be ready by September with an 80% likelihood it will work, says Oxford University expert leading research team

The majority of these companies working on treatments and vaccines will fail. But because there are so many, there is a better probability of a company coming out with something for SARS-CoV-2 than for other viruses.

Therefore, I jumped back into stocks today.

Of course, I could be wrong with any or all of the above. There could be collateral damage that surfaces later on, that I cannot foresee, such as a credit crisis because so many consumers might stop paying their mortgages or credit cards. Corporations are heavily indebted as well and might start a domino of defaults. The chances of this happening is low, due to the trillions of dollars that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. federal government are pumping into companies and individuals. But there is still a chance of this or other collateral damages.

But there is never certainty when investing in anything.

Countries Need to Stop Listening to WHO

The WHO did not and will not tell countries to ban travel. In fact, they told countries to not ban travel when they found out about the problem in China. WHO’s director general, Dr. Tedros, is incredibly incompetent or corrupt.

Luckily, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong did not listen and banned travel immediately as soon as they found out about the virus. They did several other things as well, that we are still not doing. Taiwan and Hong Kong should have the most cases outside of China, yet Taiwan has fewer than Slovenia.

China locked down Wuhan when it had 300 official cases. Canada has 247 cases, is growing exponentially and yet, Canada is still taking thousands of flights from many hot spot countries.

Spain had 228 cases on March 4. Ten days later, stores are closed (except groceries and pharmacies).

If Canada continues growing exponentially, stores can be closed in 10 days.

France had 212 cases on March 3. Eleven days later, stores are closed.

Italy had 229 cases on Feb 24. Two weeks later, the country is locked down. 19 days later, 175 people die in one day.

Politicians should stop listening to WHO and read:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now


Went to Cash Because of COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

I’ve been following the reports on this virus for the past 3 weeks. Since early February, I felt that this would cause a correction but was surprised that the market was ignoring it.

Then I got busy getting ready for my vacation to Hawaii and flying there when the correction started.

Yesterday, I got some time here in Hawaii to research this more. Today I sold my stocks.

It looks like the WHO (World Health Organization) and several countries have been lying about the severity of this virus. China, Thailand, Vietnam, Iran and the U.S. likely have multiple times more cases than they are reporting.

The U.S. has only reported 50-60 cases, all of which came from travellers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship or China. Yet, California has thousands in quarantine. Today, the first case is reported where the source of the infection is unknown. This implies that it is spreading within the U.S. and many more will be reported in the future.

Iran and Thailand likely have tens of thousands of cases.

This virus is much more infectious, easily spread and deadly than either SARS or the flu. People are succumbing and falling on the ground in some countries. Victims can get sick more than once. Contagious period can be up to 27 days without symptoms. Another difference is the size of the Chinese economy compared to when SARS broke out. This means that the impact to the world economy will be much more significant.

China has been shutting down almost entire cities. This will disrupt supply chains that the world depends on, which in turn will slow the world’s economy.

CDC has said that a pandemic is essentially assured. Germany said that they will have an epidemic. Europe is not doing enough to contain it. The U.S. is not doing enough testing. Italy is using the military to quarantine victims. There are long lineups at the grocery stores in South Korea and the shelves are empty in stores near the cluster in Italy. The number of cases worldwide are doubling every 4-5 days. Vaccine is one to one and a half years away. It looks like it is going to get worse before it gets better.

There is a possibility that this might be the start of the next bear market or recession. Hopefully, I’m wrong.