Tag Archives: corona virus

Coronavirus Will Go Exponential in More Countries

Countries are having different results with the virus. The growth is linear in some and exponential in others. See the following graph:

To prevent exponential growth, countries must do what South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan are doing:

  • Containment (Hong Kong closed its border with China.  Travel from all hot spots, such as China, South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy should have been banned since January.  We are still taking thousands of flights from them.)
  • Banning social gatherings.
  • Masks.  Most people in Hong Kong wear masks when they go out.  This not only reduces the chances of catching the virus, but more importantly, it reduces the number of people that you will infect if you have the virus.  During the incubation period before you develop symptoms, you can be infecting others and not know it.
  • Aggressive testing.
  • Contact Tracing  (In addition, South Korea has an app that tells you the locations that all infected people have visited.)
  • Quarantine  (China is the most aggressive with this, by limiting the times that people can leave their homes.)
  • Removal of deterrent of quarantine, such as paying for lost wages, so that people will not break quarantine.

For countries that have not done the above, such as Italy and Iran, the number of cases have grown exponentially.

Many other countries, including the U.S., Canada and many European countries, are not doing the above. The virus will grow exponentially in these countries.

The WHO and CDC have really dropped the ball.  WHO downplayed it for far too long and tried to be politically correct instead of being honest. The WHO and CDC have documentation from prior years that explain what should be done. This first thing that should be done is: CONTAINMENT.

“If the Containment Zone encompasses major air, land, and sea transit points, it is possible that screening procedures could be used but the preferable alternative is to close that entry point.”

From WHO Interim Protocol: Rapid operations to contain the initial emergence of pandemic influenza

In January, WHO should have told every country to practise containment, which includes banning travel from China.  Instead of doing this, WHO downplayed the situation and praised China’s efforts.  In February, WHO issued a statement saying that they are not calling it a pandemic but some dishonest, politically correct phrase.

We have no containment.

This virus is many times worse than SARS or the flu.  According to WHO’s website, a pandemic is when a virus spreads around the world.  Yet, WHO would not call this a pandemic until today, after the virus has spread to 109 countries:

World Health Organization declares the coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic

CDC should have enabled testing of thousands of Americans since weeks ago.  There are likely many thousands of Americans (and Canadians) who are infected but we don’t know yet.  China and Iran likely have many multiples more infected than they are reporting. Watch the interview of this doctor’s frustration in the CDC and his inability to test:

The other challenge is that governments are caught between a rock and a hard place:  saves lives or save their economies.  To save lives, they will need to clamp down their people, but this will clamp down their economies.  The right thing to do is to save lives, but when they do this, their economies will crater.  Many people will lose their lives or many people will lose their jobs and income. It is not a easy choice.

“Up to 150 million Americans are expected to contract the coronavirus, congressional doctor says”

Please practise social distancing.  Work at home if you can.  Do not shake hands.  Avoid social gatherings. There are going to be many long, boring months until they come up with a vaccine.

Went to Cash Because of COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

I’ve been following the reports on this virus for the past 3 weeks. Since early February, I felt that this would cause a correction but was surprised that the market was ignoring it.

Then I got busy getting ready for my vacation to Hawaii and flying there when the correction started.

Yesterday, I got some time here in Hawaii to research this more. Today I sold my stocks.

It looks like the WHO (World Health Organization) and several countries have been lying about the severity of this virus. China, Thailand, Vietnam, Iran and the U.S. likely have multiple times more cases than they are reporting.

The U.S. has only reported 50-60 cases, all of which came from travellers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship or China. Yet, California has thousands in quarantine. Today, the first case is reported where the source of the infection is unknown. This implies that it is spreading within the U.S. and many more will be reported in the future.

Iran and Thailand likely have tens of thousands of cases.

This virus is much more infectious, easily spread and deadly than either SARS or the flu. People are succumbing and falling on the ground in some countries. Victims can get sick more than once. Contagious period can be up to 27 days without symptoms. Another difference is the size of the Chinese economy compared to when SARS broke out. This means that the impact to the world economy will be much more significant.

China has been shutting down almost entire cities. This will disrupt supply chains that the world depends on, which in turn will slow the world’s economy.

CDC has said that a pandemic is essentially assured. Germany said that they will have an epidemic. Europe is not doing enough to contain it. The U.S. is not doing enough testing. Italy is using the military to quarantine victims. There are long lineups at the grocery stores in South Korea and the shelves are empty in stores near the cluster in Italy. The number of cases worldwide are doubling every 4-5 days. Vaccine is one to one and a half years away. It looks like it is going to get worse before it gets better.

There is a possibility that this might be the start of the next bear market or recession. Hopefully, I’m wrong.